Puzzle Pieces

Well, my blog entry yesterday certainly got lots of attention. Some people agreed, others disagreed, still others aren't sure, as the Roadmap is not clear. Here's how I put together my conclusion. Read on, then you decide.

- VFP usage is shrinking. When VFP 6.0 was released, it was reported to be 500,000. The last reports out of Microsoft indicate about 100,000 developers are using VFP.

- Shrinking conference attendance and fewer conferences. Steven Black has pointed out on the Wiki that all conferences have been down the past few years. Yes, the economy has much to do with it, but so does a shrinking market.

- The lack of anything in the Roadmap past Sedna.

- The fact that Sedna is some type of add-on to VFP 9.0. Most of the enhancements will allow VFP developers to write applications that target Longhorn technologies. There is nothing major on the Microsoft radar for several years after that. No other big technologies that would require additional add-ons for some time. Once VFP applications can play with these technologies, where is there to go?

- In Ken's newsletter, he states, "We want to expose all that Microsoft is planning, thinking, doing, etc. (transparency) around Visual FoxPro long term so there are nothing to assume or guess." Note the word all.

- Many, many more links on the VFP site to help VFP developers learn .Net, including the entire text of Kevin McNeish's book, .Net for Visual FoxPro Developers.

- At DevCon last year, there was lots of talk from people close to the Fox Team (but not from the Fox Team itself), that it was highly likely that 9.0 was the end. I heard some rumors of a 9.5. Sedna certainly sounds like a 9.5 to me.

- Also at DevCon, Ken showed some things the Fox Team was considering doing after 9.0. It looked mostly like Intellisense scripts to me. Things that many of us could do today.

Now add things that Ken said today on the Univeral Thread.

- "Some of the VFP team developers are helping on a project to enhance the data programming features for future .NET programming. We recently showed some demos of this work in .NET to a few VFP MVPs under NDA, and they were totally blown away and impressed to say the least." Sounds to me like .Net is getting more and more like VFP, helping to draw in more VFP developers.

- "The VFP Roadmap posted yesterday is the real and complete roadmap for VFP." The roadmap is complete. There is no more.

- "It means that everything Microsoft has currently planned for enhancing VFP is outlined in the VFP Roadmap document." Everything planned. You might argue that Ken stated "currently planned", but I argue 7.0 was planned before 6.0 was done, 8.0 was planned before 7.0 was done, and 9.0 was planned before 8.0 was done. There is nothing planned past Sedna. Plans can change, but I'm not betting on it.

- "Everything that is planned for enhancing VFP is included in the VFP Roadmap". See above.

- "So while Sedna may require VFP 9.0, it may also be more than just an add-on. The other thing to keep in mind is that while the roadmap lays out all of the VFP plans in the VFP Roadmap, things can change based on demand, priorities, trends, etc. and we are not in the business of listing what we don't think we will do or what we might not do because it closes the door to those options and hinders those in the industry involved (in this case the VFP community and job market demands)."

"So what we have done is outline our complete roadmap plans for VFP without impacting the VFP market. We have to balance a fine line between being transparent (disclosing our plans) and protecting the market of developers, businesses, vendors, etc. at the same time. Nothing should be assumed that is not defined in the roadmap."

The Roadmap has raised as many questions about life after Sedna as it has answered. Am I assuming VFP will be done? No, I don't think so. I'm putting the pieces together to complete the puzzle. I'm looking at places other than the Roadmap to figure out what it says.

Yes, I am learning new tools and technologies. There is nothing wrong with having more tools in my toolbox. Many Fox developers work with multiple languages. Just because I'm learning ASP.Net and C# does not mean I will be working exclusively with them.

I am not abandoning VFP. I will be here, shouting its praises, continuing to use it to develop the best applications for my customers. I will be sharing my knowledge with you and in turn learning from what you know. I will be writing about VFP. I am currently working on an article for FoxTalk and am discussing more articles for FoxPro Advisor. I will be speaking at conferences. I am presenting at three this year.

So, while I find the evidence pointing to Sedna to be the final version, as I stated yesterday, I am continuing on. For me, it is just a bump in the road. I hope that it will be for you too.
6:15:00 PM - Comment [27734]